Why did Maoist attack on Pili?
Maoist attacked on Pili, an army base camp on 7 Aug 2005. A short analysis of the incident might be interesting.
Wrong analysis that Maoist has become weak and therefore unable to attack big army barracks.
They will not attack on army which is constructing highway.
Diversion of attention that they will attack on Kolti.
Mistake on part of army to take position with ill preparation but with large number of weapons.
Poorly defended position.
Maoist wanted to consolidate repeated loss in the past.
They wanted to white wash that there is any internal conflict between the Maoist leaders.
They also wanted to show the outside world that they still have power to attack and thus possess bargaining power.
What now?
There are two options for army-either let Maoist and the political parties hold peace talks or take sterner offensive actions. The probability of opting for second course of action is high.
The Pili attack is significant in the view that the military wing has strong hold than the political wing inside Maoist. The statement of Prabhakar (Commander of Military Wing) rather than of Dev Gurung (In charge of Political Wing) indicates this reality.
Now the military commanders of East, Ananta, and Central region, Pasang, will try to attack in their respective regions to compete with the Western region commander Prabhakar. Therefore there are chances of attacks in both regions in near future.
The political parties have two options-either gets Maoist into their politics or boycotts Maoist call.
The government may be in a position to buy arms in the name of Maoist insurgency.
